The Cashflow Memo
SHOWNOTES
Mike, Jason, and Hunt connect the dots between geopolitics, AI infrastructure, and healthcare policy—always through the lens of cash-flow-focused investing.
[00:00] Intro (Cover)
Welcome to Telltales and the weekly Cash Flow Memo. Quick rundown of what’s ahead: energy, tech, healthcare, and a short history-of-software segment.
[00:00] Oil Supply & the War Premium (Exhibit C)
Spare capacity sits near 3 Mb/d, but conflict risks keep Brent in the mid-$60s. Trump’s proposed secondary sanctions on Russian oil add fresh uncertainty; crude would likely price in the $50s without these pressures.
[05:33] U.S. Natural Gas Snapshot (Exhibit B)
Futures support ~$3.80 gas in ’25 and $4 in ’26. Bottlenecks in Marcellus and high costs in Haynesville curb supply growth while LNG demand rises—limiting downside for efficient producers.
[07:44] Fiscal Policy & Musk Politics (Exhibit A)
A small rescission bill could pave the way for deeper cuts and a Musk-Trump détente. Implications for spending, inflation, and Tesla sentiment.
[09:10] Punch Cards to IBM: A Software Origin Story
From the 1801 Jacquard loom to Babbage’s Analytical Engine and Ada Lovelace’s first algorithm, Jason and Mike trace how punch cards seeded modern computing, the 1890 census tabulator, and ultimately IBM—mirroring today’s AI disruption debates.
[16:58] Healthcare Check-in (pp 15, 20)
Lantheus ($LNTH): CMS keeps mean-unit-cost pricing, delaying but not destroying value—stock at ~14× cash flow.
Harrow ($HROW): Sales up 67 % QoQ; pharma-tariff chatter could hit biologics more than small molecules.
[20:17] Big-Bank Earnings (p 13)
$JPM, $MS, $GS, and $IBKR post strong free-cash-flow yields (~10 %) and richer buyback capacity—attractive for long-term compounding.
[22:10] Google’s Windsurf Acquihire (p 1)
FTC scrutiny forces a split “talent-plus-IP” deal, highlighting hurdles for AI M&A and changing startup exit math.
[23:59] Enterprise Software & AI (p 2)
Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake race to embed AI while shifting from seat licenses to consumption pricing—raising both opportunity and competitive pressure.
[25:37] Oracle’s GPU Edge (p 2)
Oracle secures early-run NVIDIA chips, scaling AI data centers to meet OpenAI-type demand—strategic positioning few can match.
[26:38] Semis in Focus: NVIDIA vs. TSMC (p 3)
$NVDA’s margins stay stellar, but $TSM’s massive CapEx underpins the ecosystem. Valuation gap raises questions about supply-chain power dynamics.
[32:20] Wrap-Up & Next Week
Download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and join us in seven days for more data-driven market insights.
The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the nor nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The hosts and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.
EOG 0.00%↑ MGY 0.00%↑ LNTH 0.00%↑ HROW 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ JPM 0.00%↑ MS 0.00%↑ GS 0.00%↑ IBKR 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ CRM 0.00%↑ NOW 0.00%↑ SNOW 0.00%↑ ORCL 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑
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This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.
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