The Cashflow Memo
SHOWNOTES
This week Telltales flies from oil barrels to GPUs, showing how energy, technology, and healthcare each reshape an investor’s cash-flow lens.
[00:00] Intro
[01:00] Exhibit C – Global Oil Balance (Exhibit C)
Hunt flags disappointing demand growth (+0.5 Mb/d) against a 3-4 Mb/d spare-capacity cushion. Prices hover near $65 only because Middle-East risk keeps a volatility premium alive.
[01:51] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural Gas Outlook (Exhibit B)
Dry-gas supply is capped at 106 Bcfd while LNG exports jump 2.5 Bcfd YoY. Power-sector demand has stalled, but the forward curve still implies $3.50-4.00/MMBtu—well above the 2024 trough of $2.40.
[03:06] Exhibit A – U.S. Federal Finances (Exhibit A)
The deficit is projected to fall from $1.93 T to $1.5 T, helped by prospective tariff revenue under a second Trump term. Lower issuance would be a tail-wind for Treasuries and the dollar.
[03:49] GPU Revolution: A 3-Minute History (p. 3)
An AI-generated voiceover races from Quake-era 3D cards to CUDA, ImageNet 2012, transformers, and ChatGPT—all highlighting how parallel processing unlocked today’s AI gold rush.
[07:49] Will AI Become Sentient?
Hunt presses Jason on whether LLMs are mere tools or future autonomous agents. The trio contrast Apple’s “bicycle” philosophy with Meta/OpenAI’s quest for super-intelligence.
[15:50] Page 1 – Big-Tech Valuations Debate (p. 1)
Apple and Alphabet trade at ~31× free cash flow versus Microsoft’s 50×, reflecting market worries about hardware disruption and search cannibalisation. Is Cupertino too risk-averse to catch the next wave?
[22:54] Page 3 – Semiconductor Super-cycle (p. 3)
NVIDIA’s historic $67 B FCF (57× multiple) dwarfs AMD and INTEL, while politically sensitive TSMC still trades at 60×. The hosts grapple with “trees-to-the-sky” expectations and supply-chain risk.
[24:52] Oakcliff Sailing Update
A quick detour to Nova Scotia celebrates new distance-race records and Oakcliff’s global youth-sailing calendar.
[26:39] Healthcare Check-up
Jason highlights Centene’s guidance withdrawal, shifting pharma-tariff timelines, and encouraging early data for Vertex’s non-opioid ICX pain therapy—all hinting at underwriting and reimbursement tail-winds.
[29:05] Page 20 – Harrow Health Spotlight (p. 20)
Management’s owner-operator mindset keeps the team bullish ahead of the next earnings print; sales execution is the near-term catalyst.
[29:59] Next Week & Outro
Chips history is officially “done”—software history (and CUDA’s dominance) is up next. Subscribe, share, and send your questions for the upcoming series on code and cash flow!
AAPL 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ INTC 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ ASML 0.00%↑ CNC 0.00%↑ UNH 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ HROW 0.00%↑ LNTH 0.00%↑
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