The Cashflow Memo
SHOWNOTES
In this episode, the Telltales team analyzes Nvidia's upcoming earnings, explores the fascinating history of Intel's founding by the "Traitorous Eight," and discusses major developments in AI competition and healthcare.
[00:48] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand (Page 1) Hunt notes oil prices holding in the $60 range despite OPEC+ production increases of 400,000 barrels/day per month. The backwardation in futures has flattened out, suggesting US production may plateau and decline by 400,000 barrels/day annually as capex follows cash flow down.
[01:15] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply (Page 1) Analysis of natural gas markets and production trends across major US basins including Permian, Haynesville, and Marcellus.
[02:39] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses (Page 1) Discussion of federal deficit projections showing improvement from $1.93 trillion to $1.78 trillion. Mike highlights Elon Musk's disappointment with lack of spending cuts in the recent budget bill, which increased spending by $200 billion. Trump's tariff proposals would generate under $300 billion annually - about 7-8% of federal revenue.
[04:05] Semiconductor History II: The Traitorous Eight & The Rise of Intel Mike corrects last week's history, explaining how William Shockley left Bell Labs to start Shockley Semiconductor, then eight key employees (the "Traitorous Eight" including Gordon Moore and Robert Noyce) left to found Fairchild Semiconductor with $500 each. Fairchild pioneered silicon wafers and photolithography for integrated circuits, with early contracts from the military including the F-14 Tomcat's flight computer. Intel was founded in 1968 by Noyce, Moore, and Andy Grove, initially focusing on DRAM memory chips.
[09:28] Anthropic's New Models Challenge OpenAI (Page 1) Mike discusses Anthropic's new cutting-edge model beating benchmarks, noting their B2B developer focus versus OpenAI's consumer approach. The Microsoft-OpenAI alliance has evolved as both companies now compete for enterprise customers, with Microsoft supporting multiple language models including Anthropic.
[11:38] Apple's AI Strategy Dilemma (Page 1) Hunt raises concerns about OpenAI's $6 billion valuation for Johnny Ive's new venture as a threat to Apple. Jason suggests Apple should become the platform for accessing all AI models rather than competing directly, similar to Microsoft's agnostic approach.
[14:09] Google Search Under AI Threat (Page 1) Discussion of whether Google can maintain its search monopoly as AI transforms information retrieval. The team notes Google's AI responses are good but lack conversational follow-up, while users remain conditioned to traditional search queries.
[16:52] Nvidia Earnings Preview & Competition (Page 3) Hunt highlights Nvidia's recovery from $90 to $130, trading at a 2% free cash flow yield with unprecedented 60-70% margins on $130 billion revenue run rate. Jason believes margins will hold for 1-2 years before ASICs potentially capture market share. Mike argues Nvidia's software ecosystem and datacenter-level solutions provide lasting pricing power, estimating ASICs may only capture 20% market share in three years.
[22:03] Healthcare News GLP-1 drugs from Eli Lilly now available direct-to-consumer for $300-350/month versus $1000+ with insurance, using vials instead of pens for better dose control. A new blood test for Alzheimer's detecting beta amyloid was approved, enabling earlier diagnosis. CVS is closing all Arkansas pharmacies after the state banned companies from owning both PBMs and pharmacies, potentially foreshadowing national regulatory changes.
Next week, the team will continue their semiconductor history series with Intel's rise to dominance and eventual decline. Download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us for complete financial analysis of 80 companies across these sectors.
NVDA 0.00%↑ INTC 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ ASML 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ LLY 0.00%↑ CVS 0.00%↑ NTRA 0.00%↑
How did you like this week’s Telltales? Your feedback helps me make this great.
Loved | Great | Good | Meh | Bad | ….. If you liked this post from Telltales, why not share it?
This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.
Share this post