The Cashflow Memo
SHOWNOTES
This week the crew dissects energy demand plateaus, a surprising federal deficit outlook, and why performance-per-watt now rules both hyperscale datacenters and your smartphone—before closing with AI’s domination of medical diagnosis and fresh biotech data.
[00:00] Intro
[00:00:45] Exhibit C – World Oil Demand & Supply
Hunt notes 2025 demand is now expected to edge only 0.5 Mb/d above 2024. Mature regions (U.S., EU, Japan) stay flat, China dips, and “Other Asia” disappoints. Supply wildcards include higher Saudi output, Russian maintenance issues, and U.S. sanctions holding Iran around 3 Mb/d.
[00:02:14] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural Gas Demand & Suppply
With 2025 Henry Hub futures ~$10/MMBtu below 2024, surplus capacity and flat power-sector demand could pressure prices—unless Middle-East tensions keep a risk premium. LNG exports finally lift in ’25-’26, but dry-gas production must stay disciplined to avoid a repeat of 2020’s glut.
[00:04:36] Exhibit A – Deficit Math & the Dollar
Hunt’s model shows FY-2026 deficit shrinking to ~$1.5 T on tariff gains and flat discretionary spend—even as interest costs climb. Holding public debt at ~100% of GDP would stabilize the dollar’s reserve-currency status, though Mike and Jason question the optimism.
[00:11:17] Chip History – The Rise of ARM & Hyperscale Silicon
The trio recounts AWS’s 2006-2014 ascent and why Amazon’s Graviton ARM CPU (2018) eroded Intel’s data-center share from 90% to <75%. Performance-per-watt became king, paving the way for Apple’s A-series, Qualcomm Snapdragon, and TSMC’s process dominance—while Intel missed the mobile wave.
[00:20:31] Sponsor Break – Oakcliff Sailing Update
A quick detour to Oyster Bay’s high-performance training and thunder-storm escapades.
[00:21:24] Apple’s Siri Seeks Outside AI (p.1)
Apple may license external LLMs to upgrade Siri, even as it flirts with its own privacy rules. Jason argues Cupertino should position hardware as the on-ramp for every model rather than build one giant brain in-house.
[00:24:09] Model Mash-Up – Microsoft AI Beats Doctors (p.1)
Microsoft research shows ensembles of LLMs debating diagnoses achieve 4× physician accuracy. Mike already cross-checks ChatGPT, Gemini, and Perplexity the same way—suggesting a multi-model future, not winner-take-all.
[00:25:32] Healthcare Spotlight – Vertex & NIH Transparency (p. 15)
Vertex’s phase-III kidney drug competitor hit 46% protein reduction vs. Vertex’s prior 66%, keeping VRTX best-in-class. Jason pegs CF cash flows at ~$400/sh of value, so today’s share price barely charges for the pipeline. NIH will require publicly funded studies to go open-access, potentially reshaping peer review.
[00:27:35] RFK Jr. & Agency Talent (Exhibit A)
Despite political controversy, RFK-era health agencies attract standout personnel, signaling renewed credibility.
[00:28:12] Medicare & Medicaid Fraud Crackdown (Exhibit A)
DOJ leverages new software to expose a $14 B identity-theft scheme—one bite out of an estimated $100 B in annual fraud, underscoring digital ROI in government healthcare.
[00:28:52] Looking Ahead – GPUs & Software History
Next week wraps chip history with GPUs, then rewinds to punch-card-era software. Until then, stay healthy and keep cash flowing!
AMZN 0.00%↑ INTC 0.00%↑ ARM 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ QCOM 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑
How did you like this week’s Telltales? Your feedback helps me make this great.
Loved | Great | Good | Meh | Bad | ….. If you liked this post from Telltales, why not share it?
This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.
Share this post