The Cashflow Memo
SHOWNOTES
This week Mike, Jason, and Hunt sprint through oil, gas, tariffs, chips, tech launches, AI financing drama, and the brewing revolt against pharmacy-benefit managers—wrapping with Harrow’s latest capital-allocation coup.
[00:00] Intro
[00:01] Exhibit C – Oil Oversupply & the Iran Stalemate (Exhibit C)
Hunt explains why global crude stays firm near $65–66 despite clear oversupply, tracing it to dead-locked U.S.–Iran negotiations over centrifuges.
[00:02] Exhibit B – Natural Gas Holds the Line (Exhibit B)
Production hovers around 106 Bcf/d; flat U.S. power demand is offset by LNG exports and cold-weather consumption, keeping prices around $4.
[00:03] Exhibit A – Tariffs & U.S. Fiscal Math (Exhibit A)
Tariff receipts could hit $700 B if it reaches $60 B per month. Jason notes China-related levies may settle near 35 % (ex-fentanyl).
[00:04] Rare-Earth Magnets vs. NVIDIA Chips: Trade-Deal Leverage (p.1)
China throttles drone-part exports and magnets; the U.S. counters with chip restrictions—highlighting mutual dependencies and a possible “chips-for-magnets” swap.
[00:07] CPI Calm Despite Tariff Talk (Exhibit A)
May inflation data shows little price pressure so far, challenging economists’ warnings of tariff-driven CPI spikes.
[00:07] Chip History – From 386 to the WINTEL Juggernaut (p.3)
Mike and Jason revisit Intel’s pivot to CPUs, the rise of the 386, Microsoft’s DOS/Windows partnership, and the CISC vs. RISC debate that shaped desktop dominance.
[00:14] Apple WWDC: Liquid-Glass UX & the Missing AI Play (p.1)
Jason critiques Apple’s “liquid glass” interface—translucent icons that hint at an AR future—while lamenting Cupertino’s AI lag despite iron-clad customer lock-in.
[00:18] xAI’s $5 B Debt Deal Stumbles (p.1)
Morgan Stanley shelves a 12 % syndicated loan after Elon’s tweet-storm; Hunt wonders if weak X/Twitter revenue can support the spend.
[00:19] Could Tesla Scoop Up xAI? (p.1)
Jason weighs the pros and cons of rolling xAI into Tesla—synergies with FSD and humanoid robots versus dilution and distraction.
[00:22] UnitedHealth, PBMs & the Rot in U.S. Healthcare (p.19)
The crew argues that dismantling pharmacy-benefit managers is step #1 to break insurers’ “raise-premiums-faster-than-costs” model, potentially shrinking UNH’s growth engine.
[00:27] Harrow Licenses BYQLOVI™ for Peanuts (p.20)
Harrow (HROW) nabs U.S. rights to a nanoparticle steroid eyedrop for only $500 K—an ideal plug-in for its ophthalmology sales force and a textbook capital-allocation win.
[00:29] Outro
UNH 0.00%↑ LLY 0.00%↑ NVO 0.00%↑ GDRX 0.00%↑ HROW 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ MS 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ INTC 0.00%↑ IBM 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ HPQ 0.00%↑ DELL 0.00%↑ CVS 0.00%↑
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