The Cashflow Memo
SHOWNOTES
[00:00] Cold Open
[00:00:47] Exhibit C – World Oil Supply/Demand (Exhibit C)
Hunt explains how OPEC + and Saudi Arabia are phasing curtailments out of the market—potentially adding 1.2 Mbbl/d in just three months—and why that could pressure crude prices if capacity rises to an 11 Mbbl/d run-rate.
[00:02:09] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural Gas Outlook (Exhibit B)
Despite AI-powered data-center hype, gas‐fired power demand is flat; LNG exports remain the bright spot, expected to average 16 Bcf/d this year and 18 + next. With dry-gas output steady near 106 Bcf/d, Hunt believes $4 gas can hold.
[00:03:04] Exhibit A – Federal Revenues & Spending (Exhibit A)
The team dissects why revenues climb toward $5 T while expenses swell over $6 T, singling out interest costs and discretionary outlays—not Medicare/Medicaid—as the chief deficit drivers. Musk’s critique of “big and beautiful” budgets sparks debate on trimming the trillion-dollar gap.
[00:08:00] Chip History: Intel’s Logical Pivot
Mike traces Intel’s leap from DRAM to CPUs, IBM’s game-changing cross-licensing deal with AMD, and how founder intuition (Gordon Moore, Andy Grove) enabled the x86 juggernaut—raising questions about Intel’s later misses in mobile and AI.
[00:14:00] Top Mark Rankings for ILCA 7 Sailing
Guest Daniel Escudero unveils a transparent, points-based ranking system to track U.S. ILCA 7 sailors, aiming to boost Olympic competitiveness while rallying the sailing community.
[00:15:58] Semiconductor Capacity Crunch — NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASML (p. 3)
Hunt and Jason unpack hyperscalers’ hunt for NVIDIA alternatives, TSMC’s monopoly on advanced packaging, and whether Intel’s Arizona fab can catch up. TSMC’s disciplined CapEx (~$40 B for 2025) signals another doubling of AI-chip throughput.
[00:22:01] Meta’s Nuclear Power Deal (p. 4)
Meta locks in output from an aging Illinois reactor, giving Constellation the confidence to invest in life-extension upgrades—an early example of data centers turning to baseload nuclear for green power.
[00:23:18] Apple’s In-House AI Challenge (p. 1)
Rumors swirl of Apple’s ChatGPT-class model; the hosts debate whether Big Tech has been sandbagging releases and what fast-follow strategies mean for AI moats.
[00:25:38] BioNTech–Bristol Myers Cancer Deal (p. 15)
A $3.5 B bispecific antibody partnership raises eyebrows: BioNTech de-risks promising oncology assets while Jason questions whether combo drugs outperform separate therapies.
[00:27:47] Weight-Loss Drug Price War (p. 19)
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk cut GLP-1 prices toward $400/month as compounding pharmacies and next-gen oral pills loom, reminding investors that pharma “cash cows” have finite pasture.
[00:30:04] UnitedHealth: Indispensable or Indefensible? (p. 19)
With UNH shares halved and a new CEO, the trio spar over whether PBMs are too vertically integrated, if UNH can be re-formed, or if the system must “burn it to the ground” to lower costs—setting up next week’s deep dive.
[00:32:55] Closing
Thanks for tuning in! Grab the full Cash Flow Memo, share your thoughts on AI-chip capacity or healthcare reform, and subscribe so you never miss an episode.
UNH 0.00%↑ INTC 0.00%↑ IBM 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ ASML 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ CEG 0.00%↑ BNTX 0.00%↑ BMY 0.00%↑ NVO 0.00%↑ LLY 0.00%↑ CVS 0.00%↑ REGN 0.00%↑
How did you like this week’s Telltales? Your feedback helps me make this great.
Loved | Great | Good | Meh | Bad | ….. If you liked this post from Telltales, why not share it?
This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.
Share this post