The Cashflow Memo
Mentioned Articles & Podcasts
SHOWNOTES
Telltales dives into the week’s Cash-Flow Memo with a global tour of oil markets, U.S. fiscal math, fast-moving FDA reforms, and the AI talent wars—plus a new national sailing ranking and a teaser for next week’s chip-history deep dive.
[00:00] Intro (–)
Mike, Hunt, and Jason set the stage for 30 minutes of energy, tech, and healthcare analysis, remind listeners of the Cash-Flow Memo at Telltales.us, and roll the standard disclaimer.
[00:38] Iran Tensions & Spare Oil Capacity (Exhibit C)
Hunt explains why fresh geopolitical alarms around Iran may fizzle out in a few weeks, leaving ~3.5 MMbbl/d of potential supply still sidelined. The hosts outline short-term implications for global crude flows and price risk.
[01:35] Oil & Gas Price Outlook (Exhibit B)
Reviewing latest strip prices, they note WTI firming to $72–73 while 2026 remains in backwardation. Natural-gas production appears to be leveling near 105–106 Bcf/d, bolstering Hunt’s $3.80–$3.90/MMBtu 2025 forecast and a constructive view for gas-weighted E&Ps.
[02:48] U.S. Budget, Deficit & Medicaid Debate (Exhibit A)
The Senate’s “big, beautiful bill” could trim the FY-27 deficit toward $1.6 T, but Hunt warns that savings must come from the “all-other” spending bucket. Mike highlights how California and New York face scrutiny over Medicaid outlays, which represent roughly one-third of California’s budget.
[05:10] Healthcare Spending & Agency Leadership (Exhibit A)
With RFK Jr.’s appointees running key health agencies, the team is cautiously optimistic that overall healthcare costs might flatten, echoing Medicaid’s recent plateau near $600 B. They argue real deficit progress is impossible without taming healthcare inflation.
[05:50] RFK Jr. Guts Vaccine Committee (Exhibit A)
Jason details RFK Jr.’s wholesale dismissal of all 17 CDC immunization-committee members—13 installed late in the prior administration—sparking worries about anti-vax influence. New appointees are expected soon, leaving policy direction uncertain.
[07:27] FDA Reforms: Gene Therapy, AI & Two-Month Reviews (Exhibit A)
Highlights from the FDA’s cell-and-gene roundtable: proposals to socialize million-dollar curative therapies and a pilot AI system already speeding protocol reviews. A new priority-review-voucher program could slash approval times from a year to as little as two months—worth $160 M in time value for drug sponsors.
[13:26] Linking Healthcare Fixes to Fiscal Health (Exhibit A)
Hunt argues that meaningful deficit reduction hinges on the success of such FDA and agency reforms; without healthcare savings, the spending problem remains unsolved.
[14:09] Apple, Google & the AI Arms Race (Page 1)
Jason warns Apple’s delayed Siri overhaul hands Android a nine-month head start, while Hunt questions the sustainability of Google’s $20 B/year default-search payments. The trio debates OpenAI’s potential antitrust complaint against Microsoft and the murky definition of AGI.
[18:42] ILCA 7 Top-Mark Rankings Launch (–)
Olympic hopeful Daniel Escudero introduces a transparent ranking system for U.S. ILCA 7 sailors, aimed at unifying domestic and international performance metrics and strengthening America’s 2028 Olympic bid.
[20:02] AI Talent War & Meta’s $100 M Bonuses (p. 4)
Meta reportedly dangles nine-figure packages to lure elite AI engineers away from OpenAI and Anthropic. Mike notes the scarcity of experts who can fully exploit rapidly advancing hardware, tilting the battlefield toward deep-pocket incumbents.
[22:12] Vertex’s Type-1 Diabetes Cure & Other Healthcare Stocks (Page 15)
Jason outlines how a new two-month FDA voucher could let Vertex ($VRTX) win approval for its stem-cell therapy within five years—transformative despite immunosuppressant hurdles. Hunt flags mixed trial results and the limited 60 k-patient addressable market.
[24:25] Next Week: From Wintel to GPUs (–)
Mike previews the continuation of their semiconductor history series—resurrecting AMD, the dawn of distributed computing, mobile’s rise, GPUs, and TSMC’s fabs.
[25:25] Must-Listen: Morris Chang on TSMC (–)
Hunt endorses the Acquired podcast’s long-form interview with TSMC founder Morris Chang, calling it essential for anyone investing in AI hardware; links will be in the episode email.
A more condensed history was covered by Gwendolyn on Telltales last fall:
[27:38] Outro & Subscribe (–)
The hosts sign off, teasing next Wednesday’s show and encouraging listeners to join the mailing list at Telltales.us.
Stay tuned, share the episode with a fellow market-watcher, and hit subscribe so you never miss our weekly memo-to-mic breakdown.
AAPL 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑
How did you like this week’s Telltales? Your feedback helps me make this great.
Loved | Great | Good | Meh | Bad | ….. If you liked this post from Telltales, why not share it?
This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.
Share this post