The Cashflow Memo
SHOWNOTES
In Episode 2526 the Telltales crew races through this week’s exhibits, rewinds the semiconductor timeline, and sizes up fresh tech-and-healthcare catalysts—from Tesla’s robotaxis to a federal ruling that shields AI training data.
[00:00] Cold Open
[00:00:56] Exhibit C – Global Oil Balance
Hunt flags his revised crude-supply model: U.S. output unlikely to hit 13 Mb/d, Russia drifting under 9.8 Mb/d, and Saudi barrels rising. A 3–4 Mb/d surplus keeps Brent range-bound as risk premia compress post-cease-fire.
[00:01:50] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural-Gas Outlook
Dry-gas production plateaus near 106 Bcfd; the Permian slowdown and tepid power demand temper growth. LNG exports shine, storage draws tighten, and $4 Henry Hub looks sticky through ’26.
[00:03:41] Exhibit A – Uncle Sam’s Cash-Flow Statement
A first cut of the FY-26 forecast still can’t close the deficit gap. Hunt explains why reconciliation math and 60-vote gridlock leave structural reform to House budget hawks.
[00:04:39] Sponsor Break – Oakcliff Sailing
Mike spotlights Oakcliff’s blistering boat-yard schedule and scholarship program, urging sailors to pay it forward.
[00:05:26] Chip History: TSMC to AMD’s 64-Bit Breakthrough (p3)
Morris Chang’s 1987 fab-only gamble births TSMC and unlocks fabless models. Jim Keller’s K7/K8 Athlon era briefly drags AMD to ~50 % x86 share, proving performance-per-watt can disrupt scale economics.
[00:10:34] Distributed Computing & the Birth of AWS (p1)
Jason recalls Yahoo/Google ditching multimillion-dollar mainframes for racks of $2 k servers, inventing “big data” along the way. Amazon’s 2006 epiphany—rent idle holiday capacity—spawns EC2 and S3.
[00:15:23] Tech Trends: Who’s the Next AWS?
Hunt games out winner-take-all odds. OpenAI owns mindshare, but Jason argues today’s AI and blockchain moves feel evolutionary, not the platform shift that cloud computing was.
[00:17:51] Stablecoins & the GENIUS Act (p7)
Mike/Jason debate Congress’s new bill mandating 1-for-1 Treasury backing. Bank-issued coins could soak up supply just as deficits balloon—yet Visa/Mastercard may cede little share if faster rails emerge.
[00:19:42] Tesla Robotaxi Rollout (p1)
Early Austin riders rave about the fully driverless service—another optionality boost to Tesla’s margin story.
[00:19:50] Netflix Eyes Live TV (p4)
A French broadcast deal hints at Netflix morphing into full-stack cable 2.0, chasing YouTube TV’s bundle play.
[00:20:15] AI Fair-Use Win (p1)
A California court says training an LLM on copyrighted books mirrors human reading—relieving Anthropic & peers from existential IP risk.
[00:20:48] Harrow Adds BYQLOVI Rights (p20)
For just $500 k up-front, Harrow tucks another ophthalmic asset into its commercial engine—classic bolt-on deal structure.
[00:22:41] $HIMS vs. Novo Nordisk (p19)
Novo yanks its GLP-1 direct-to-consumer pact, accusing HIMS of pushing compounded knock-offs. Mike calls out HIMSS’s dubious IP posture and healthcare conflicts.
[00:24:34] Healthcare Rulebook: Price Transparency & Prior Auth (p15, 19-20)
CMS signals mandatory net-price disclosure; HHS moves 280 M insured lives toward e-prior-auth to slash admin friction.
[00:26:09] Taxing Pharma Ads (p15, 19)
The White House floats nixing ad-cost deductions. Lilly’s $1.5 B budget and Regeneron’s spend make them prime targets—an indirect curb on DTC pharma blitzes.
[00:28:04] Next Week: iPhone, GPUs & the Energy Cost of Compute
The crew tees up Keller’s performance-per-watt legacy in mobile and modern AI training, promising one last chip-history chapter.
Thanks for listening! Subscribe on telltales.us for the full memo and catch next week’s deep dive into Apple silicon and GPU economics.
TSM 0.00%↑ IBM 0.00%↑ INTC 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ HPQ 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ ORCL 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ V 0.00%↑ MA 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ NFLX 0.00%↑ HROW 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ HIMS 0.00%↑ NVO 0.00%↑ LLY 0.00%↑ REGN 0.00%↑
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