The Cashflow Memo
SHOWNOTES
In this episode, Hunt and Jason discuss the implications of a potential second Trump term on the energy sector, Elon Musk's efforts to reduce federal spending, and the recent approval of Vertex's non-opioid pain drug. They also delve into the latest earnings reports from major tech companies and the advancements in autonomous driving technology.
[00:00:46] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt anticipates that Trump's policies, including sanctions on Iran and Russia, could tighten the global oil market surplus in 2025. He expects Iranian exports to drop to zero and Russian production to decline by 1 million barrels per day.
[00:02:18] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Hunt discusses the positive impact of weather on natural gas demand and the potential for increased production. He highlights the steady growth in power demand and the expansion of LNG exports, which could be further supported by a Trump administration.
[00:03:38] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES Hunt and Jason analyze Elon Musk's efforts to reduce federal spending, targeting cuts in Medicaid and other discretionary programs. They believe Musk's team could potentially trim $500 billion from the 2025 budget, although challenges and opposition are expected.
[00:07:11] Apple Earnings (Page 1) Jason notes that Apple experienced a 5% decline in iPhone sales during the holiday season, falling short of expectations for a super cycle. He attributes the slowdown to weak demand in China and suggests that Apple may need to integrate AI features to remain competitive.
[00:09:20] Tesla Earnings (Page 1) Despite a disappointing quarter, Jason points out that Tesla's stock rallied on Elon Musk's optimism about the rollout of robo-taxis. He believes investors are focusing on the company's future potential rather than short-term setbacks.
[00:10:08] How does FSD handle surprises like a kid running into the street after a ball? (Page 1) Jason provides a detailed explanation of how Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system learns from real-world driving data to handle unexpected situations, such as a child running into the street. He contrasts Tesla's approach with Waymo's more expensive and sensor-heavy system.
[00:14:19] Insurance on cars with FSD (Page 1) Hunt and Jason discuss the potential for Tesla to offer insurance for FSD-equipped vehicles, either independently or through partnerships. They believe that Tesla aims to demonstrate the safety benefits of FSD and offer competitive premiums.
[00:15:24] FSD Regulation (Page 1) The hosts explore the regulatory landscape for autonomous driving, noting that Waymo has obtained approval in several cities. They speculate that Elon Musk may leverage his connections to push for federal-level regulations to streamline the process.
[00:16:19] Tesla FSD vs Waymo (Page 1) Jason compares the cost and technological differences between Tesla's FSD and Waymo's autonomous driving systems. He highlights Tesla's camera-based approach as more cost-effective than Waymo's expensive sensor suite, which could impact the profitability of robo-taxi services.
[00:18:36] Will Tesla partner with Uber & Lift, or build out their own Rideshare Network for Robotaxi? (Page 20, 1) Hunt and Jason consider whether Tesla will collaborate with ride-hailing companies like Uber and Lyft or develop its own network for robo-taxis. They note that Uber is currently partnering with Waymo and may be open to working with other autonomous vehicle makers.
[00:19:28] Vertex Pain Drug Approval & Process Power (Page 15) Jason discusses the recent FDA approval of Vertex's non-opioid pain drug, Jernavix, and its potential to address the opioid crisis. He highlights the significant economic impact of opioid addiction and suggests that subsidizing Jernavix could yield substantial societal benefits.
The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics, from the potential impacts of a second Trump term on the energy sector to the latest advancements in autonomous driving technology and the approval of a groundbreaking non-opioid pain medication. Stay tuned for more in-depth discussions on the trends shaping the future of energy, technology, and healthcare.
AAPL 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ UBER 0.00%↑ LYFT 0.00%↑ DASH 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑
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