The Cashflow Memo
[00:00:00] Intro
Mike set the stage for an episode packed with energy, tech, biotech analysis and a special guest from the OakCliff Sailing Center.
[00:01:14] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand
Hunt discussed Saudi Arabia's potential to unleash 3 million barrels per day of held-back oil production to flex on cheating OPEC nations. A simple move with profound market implications.
[00:01:58] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply
Warm weather had depressed natural gas prices lately. But the team saw prices firming if production is curtailed.
[00:03:06] Exhibit A: US Gov't Revenues and Expenses
Progress inched forward on the U.S. budget process. The government machine lurched onward.
[00:03:38] Page 1: AAPL/AMZN/GOOG/MSFT/TSLA
Dissecting tech titan free cash flows revealed insights: Amazon's logistics build-out, Google's bloated hiring, Tesla's software potential. Following the money trail leads to understanding.
[00:13:23] Oakcliff Sailing Update
Dawn Riley inspired with tales of Oakcliff alumni sailing victories worldwide. The lure of the open water summons all.
[00:14:57] Investing in Healthcare & Biotech
Mike and Jason outlined their approach to biotech at Top Mark Capital: growing free cash flows, moats, innovating in stagnant sectors, funding R&D internally. A straightforward but potent strategy for asymmetric returns.
[00:16:43] Page 15: PFE/MRNA/LNTH/BNTX/VRTX
Vertex exemplified the ideal - spending half its cash flow on R&D for a new non-opioid pain drug, its cystic fibrosis franchise providing a strong moat.
[00:21:02] Page 19: UNH/CVS/REGN/BIIB/LLY
Larger biotechs like Lilly were assessed, but smaller innovators offered more potential upside per the team's criteria. Risk and opportunity in equilibrium.
[00:23:10] What is RNA?
Jason eloquently explained RNA technology's role in COVID vaccines and vast future cancer treatment potential. Knowledge is indispensable.
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The Telltales Investor (episode 2410)