The Cashflow Memo
Shownotes
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:00:55 - Oil and Gas Market Update
OPEC+ meeting impact on oil prices: WTI dropped from $80 to $74, now back to $80
Geopolitical risk premium due to Gaza conflict and potential Israel-Hezbollah tensions
Natural gas prices remain low despite heat wave
Gas production running at 100 bcf/day, down from 104 bcf/day in November
New pipeline from West Texas to Gulf Coast opening in August
05:38 - US Government Finances
Neither presidential candidate likely to address need for increased taxes or reduced spending
Social Security and Medicare trust funds projected to run low in 4-5 years
Breakdown of federal revenue sources: individual income tax, corporate tax, payroll taxes
Challenges in raising additional revenue or cutting major spending categories
09:12 - Healthcare Sector Update
Vertex Pharmaceuticals' promising phase 1/2 results for type 1 diabetes treatment
11 of 12 patients insulin-independent at 90 days, 3 patients still independent at 1 year
Eli Lilly seeking FDA approval for GLP-1 drug to treat sleep apnea
GLP-1 drugs on FDA shortage list, allowing compounding pharmacies to produce versions
Hims & Hers Health to offer compounded semaglutide, stock rallied on news
15:39 - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Deep Dive
Strategy of targeting undertreated diseases with smaller patient populations
Continuous improvement in cystic fibrosis treatments
Pipeline includes treatments for kidney disease, pain, and type 1 diabetes
Non-opioid pain medication in phase 3 trials with potential for nerve pain treatment
Acquisition strategy combining technologies (e.g. stem cells and encapsulation for diabetes)
21:15 - Tesla and EV Market Analysis
Breaking down Tesla's valuation between automotive business and other ventures
Morgan Stanley price target of $310/share, only $105 attributed to automotive
Other potential value drivers: full self-driving/robotaxi service, humanoid robots
Challenges in EV market: higher interest rates, increased competition
Comparison to Apple's ecosystem and customer loyalty
Chinese competition in low-cost EV production
29:21 - Wrap-up and Next Week's Preview
VRTX 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ LLY 0.00%↑ BNTX 0.00%↑ HIMS 0.00%↑ WMT 0.00%↑ TGT 0.00%↑ LOW 0.00%↑ HD 0.00%↑ KMX 0.00%↑ CHPT 0.00%↑ EQT 0.00%↑
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