The Cashflow Memo
SHOWNOTES
This week the Telltales Podcast dives into critical cash flow insights, spanning volatile oil and gas markets, U.S. government spending debates, and the disruptive potential of Tesla, NVIDIA, and healthcare innovators. Hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence unpack the numbers and trends shaping investment opportunities as of February 19, 2025.
[00:00] Intro
The episode kicks off with a teaser about autonomous driving’s future in the U.S., followed by Mike Nicoletti’s welcome to Telltales, introducing the Cash Flow Memo available at telltales.us. The hosts set the stage for a 30-minute deep dive into energy, technology, and healthcare, urging listeners to download the memo and follow along.
[00:50] World Oil Supply / Demand (Memo Exhibit C)
Hunt analyzes a modified Exhibit C, factoring in sanctions on Russia and Iran that erase the oil surplus, dropping supply to 1.2 million barrels daily under Saudi Arabia’s 9.5 million barrel production cap. He highlights the volatility, noting oil prices could swing from $50 to $80 depending on sanction outcomes, with skepticism about Saudi’s claimed 12 million barrel capacity. This segment underscores how geopolitical shifts could drastically impact energy investments.
[03:03] US Gas Demand / Supply (Memo Exhibit B)
Focusing on natural gas, Hunt notes U.S. dry gas production hitting 105 billion cubic feet (Bcf) daily, with slight increases in Canadian imports and residential demand (up to 25.5 Bcf due to a harsh winter). LNG feed gas holds steady at 14.5 Bcf, while power generation demand has surged 7 Bcf over five years, hinting at future growth tied to data centers. The discussion forecasts potential shifts in gas demand patterns as technology evolves.
[04:18] US Gov’t Revenues and Expenses (Memo Exhibit A)
Hunt explores proposed spending cuts of $600 billion to $1 trillion, targeting areas like Medicaid and defense (running at $900 billion), while revenues are expected to exceed $5 trillion in 2025. Jason and Mike discuss early Doge-inspired cuts, like terminating probationary federal employees, rolling government size back to 2023 levels. The Treasury Secretary’s focus on the 10-year rate as a fiscal target adds a fresh perspective to monetary policy debates.
[07:59] The Most Interesting Companies, Regardless of Valuation (Memo Pages 1-3)
Tesla and NVIDIA emerge as the episode’s standout companies, with Hunt praising Tesla’s $36 billion cash pile and $2 billion free cash flow, despite its trillion-dollar valuation, and NVIDIA’s $70 billion free cash flow at a $3 trillion market cap. Mike and Jason project NVIDIA’s revenue could hit $180-$200 billion in 2025, driven by hyperscaler CapEx, while Tesla’s autonomous driving potential sparks debate about its growth trajectory. This segment highlights their disruptive potential, valuation aside.
[15:32] Meta’s 30k Miles of Fiber (Memo Page 4)
Meta’s plan to lay 30,000 miles of fiber, skirting global hotspots like the South China Sea, signals massive data center expansion, potentially in India, boosting NVIDIA’s GPU demand. Mike and Jason see this as a backbone upgrade to ease infrastructure bottlenecks, reinforcing AI and tech growth trends. The discussion ties Meta’s move to broader tech investment themes.
[17:41] Tesla and the Impact of FSD / Robotaxi (Memo Page 1)
Jason weighs Tesla’s push into utility-scale batteries (e.g., 200 MW in Memphis) and full self-driving (FSD), questioning battery fire risks but seeing FSD as a high-margin game-changer, possibly via subscriptions. Mike highlights Tesla’s scale economies, offering Model 3 leases at $250/month while banking on software margins. The hosts debate if Tesla could hit $10 billion in free cash flow by 2028, with FSD as a key driver.
[23:55] What % of Cars Sold in US Will Have Autonomous Driving Ability? (Memo Page 1)
Hunt poses a provocative question: by 2027-28, what share of the 15 million U.S. cars sold annually will feature autonomous driving? Mike predicts it’ll hinge on Tesla’s output, suggesting it could become “table stakes” as insurance costs favor self-driving cars, while Jason cautions that legacy automakers like GM may lag into the 2030s due to slow production cycles. The segment explores a potential winner-take-all market.
[26:39] Healthcare Updates: RFK Jr Impact!
Jason and Mike laud the “Make America Healthy Again” executive order, which probes why Americans are sicker—citing 18% of 18-year-olds with fatty liver disease—linking it to food supply issues like microplastics and ultra-processed foods. They highlight its focus on SSRIs’ rise in youth and long-term side effects, alongside emerging alternatives like ketamine-based treatments from Janssen and Axsome. The discussion frames this as a root-cause approach to healthcare costs, with data-sharing reforms on the horizon.
Tune in next week for more on Tesla, NVIDIA, and healthcare innovations—download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us to stay ahead of the curve!
TSLA 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ GM 0.00%↑ F 0.00%↑ TM 0.00%↑ AXSM 0.00%↑
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