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The Cashflow Memo
Shownotes
In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the latest developments in energy markets, semiconductor stocks, and biotech. Key topics include Intel's decline due to strategic missteps, NVIDIA's AI leadership and competitive risks, and updates on oil, natural gas, and the U.S. deficit.
[00:59] WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C) Hunt notes 4 million barrels per day of spare production capacity, mostly from Saudi Arabia and UAE. If this supply came online, oil prices could drop significantly. Easing of tensions in Ukraine and Middle East could be bearish for oil.
[03:19] US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Exhibit B) Natural gas prices are falling as storage levels rise much faster than normal, with the November contract trading in low $2 range. Weather will be a key factor, but persistently low prices could be a risk, especially for Haynesville producers.
[04:20] US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Exhibit A)
The U.S. deficit remains a long-term challenge with no easy solutions.
[06:39] Energy Earnings Updates: 2024Q2 (Pages 9-12) Hunt reviews the latest results and outlook for Antero, EQT, Chesapeake, EOG, Magnolia, Permian Resources, Diamondback, Kinder Morgan, Enterprise, Energy Transfer, and the oil majors.
[13:44] Intel's Journey to Irrelevance (Page 4) The team discusses how Intel went from being the dominant chipmaker to facing an existential crisis due to missing mobile and AI trends. With $15B of annual cash burn and $48B of debt, major restructuring may be needed. Meanwhile, NVIDIA has grown from $5B to $110B+ in revenue.
[19:16] Nvidia's Risks (Page 4) While hyperscalers like Amazon and Google are developing their own AI chips for cost and performance reasons, they are likely to still rely heavily on NVIDIA GPUs. Energy availability is a potential risk. Mike & Jason published an article on Nvidia’s 5 risks which you can get from their website: www.topmarkcapital.com
[24:54] PFE / MRNA / LNTH / BNTX / VRTX (Page 15) Jason provides an update on the latest in biotech, including Novartis divesting its radiopharmacy unit, viewing Lantheus' network as a strategic asset. BioNTech also announced promising early results for an mRNA lung cancer vaccine.
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AR 0.00%↑ EQT 0.00%↑ CHK 0.00%↑ AM 0.00%↑ EOG 0.00%↑ MGY 0.00%↑ PR 0.00%↑ FANG 0.00%↑ KMI 0.00%↑ EPD 0.00%↑ ET 0.00%↑ WES 0.00%↑ XOM 0.00%↑ CVX 0.00%↑ COP 0.00%↑ OXY 0.00%↑ LNG 0.00%↑ INTC 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ ORCL 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ LNTH 0.00%↑ BNTX 0.00%↑
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