The Cashflow Memo
Shownotes
[00:00:00] Introduction
[00:01:02] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand
Discussion of rising oil prices due to drone attacks on Russian refineries and potential threats from Houthi rebels in Yemen
Analysis of global oil supply numbers for 2023, highlighting oversupply situation if Saudi Arabia increases production
Potential for downside in oil prices if Saudi Arabia raises output to 11 million barrels per day
[00:03:29] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply
Analysis of US natural gas production running at 102-104 bcf/d currently vs forecast of 104 bcf/d for 2024
Factors like shut-ins impacting production
Increasing power demand for natural gas, driven by intermittent wind/solar sources
Forecast showing tight supply/demand balance in 2025
[00:06:19] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses
Discussion of proposed Biden administration budget with higher spending
Analysis of deficit trends, with hopes of stabilizing around $1.4 trillion and gradual reduction
Factors like curtailed spending, defense budget, and interest payments impacting deficit
[00:10:07] Apple + Google AI Deal?
Speculation on Apple using Google's Gemini language model for Siri assistant
Potential licensing deal between Apple and Google for Gemini
Monetization challenges for AI models like Gemini
[00:13:44] Microsoft Acquihires Inflection AI
Analysis of Microsoft's acquisition of Inflection AI, founded by former DeepMind employee
Potential reasons like access to talent, hardware, and reducing reliance on OpenAI
[00:16:40] Google Gemini's Impressive Context Window
Discussion of Gemini's ability to process up to 1 million tokens (words) for context
Advantages of larger context windows for summarization tasks
[00:19:19] Nvidia's New AI Hardware Announcements
Details on Nvidia's new GPU chips with 2.5x faster performance and optimizations for large language models
Importance of Nvidia's NVLink networking technology for connecting multiple GPUs
[00:21:57] Lantheus Update
Brief update on Lantheus, a radiopharmaceutical company
Acquisition of another radiopharmaceutical company in the industry
Positive outlook on Lantheus' prostate cancer diagnostic Pylerify and future therapeutics
[00:25:44] Vertex Update
Update on Vertex Pharmaceuticals and their non-opioid pain medication pipeline
Increasing state laws requiring opioid consultation before prescribing
Vertex's strong cash flows from cystic fibrosis treatments
[00:27:04] Biontech Earnings
Discussion of BioNTech's disappointing COVID-19 vaccine sales
Analysis of BioNTech's pipeline, including mRNA cancer vaccines and acquired antibody treatments
Concerns about BioNTech's strategy for reinvesting cash flows
Companies Discussed: AAPL 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ LNTH 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ BNTX 0.00%↑
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