The Cashflow Memo
Shownotes
This episode of Telltales covers several key topics related to investing, energy markets, and the pharmaceutical industry. Here's a summary of the main discussions with timestamps for the chapters:
[00:00:54] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND
The hosts discuss the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, and how the withdrawal of Israeli troops could impact oil prices. Hunt mentions that with Russian oil production down by at least 1 million barrels per day due to the Ukraine conflict, and OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE holding back supply, the oil market remains vulnerable to supply shocks, keeping prices elevated in the mid-$80s range.
[00:03:45] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY
The conversation shifts to the natural gas market, where prices have been holding up well. Hunt highlights the potential for increased power demand from data centers, especially those with GPUs, which could drive natural gas consumption higher, supporting prices. He also notes the supply discipline from major producers like EQT, which has curtailed production to balance the market.
[00:05:38] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES
The hosts analyze the macroeconomic environment, discussing the impact of higher inflation, continued government deficit spending, and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. Hunt raises concerns about the potential effect of higher interest rates on stock market valuations, as was observed in 2022 when valuations of high-growth companies declined significantly. [1]
[00:08:15] Page 1: Higher For Longer impact on Tesla
The discussion turns to Tesla, with the hosts debating the company's valuation in the context of higher interest rates.
[00:16:27] Page 13: JPM/MS/GS
Hunt analyzes the financial performance and valuations of major banks like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs. He highlights their ability to generate consistent free cash flow, buy back shares, and pay dividends, which has resulted in attractive returns for long term holders of the stocks.
[00:22:44] Page 15: PFE / MRNA / LNTH / BNTX / VRTX
The hosts discuss the challenges faced by large pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer in replacing revenue from expiring patents and developing new blockbuster drugs. They also compare the prospects of Moderna and BioNTech, the companies behind the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, and their efforts to develop personalized cancer vaccines and other therapies. Jason and Mike share their perspectives on which company might be better positioned for success in this area.
TSLA 0.00%↑ JPM 0.00%↑ MS 0.00%↑ GS 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ MRNA 0.00%↑ BNTX 0.00%↑
How did you like this week’s Telltales? Your feedback helps me make this great.
Loved | Great | Good | Meh | Bad | ….. If you liked this post from Telltales, why not share it?
This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.
Navigating Markets and Industries: Energy, Autos, Banking, and Pharma (e2415)