The Cashflow Memo
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Shownotes
Welcome to the Telltales Podcast, where we delve into the pivotal role of cashflow in investing. Hosted by Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence, this episode covers a wide range of topics from global oil supply and demand to the latest in tech and healthcare. Below are the detailed summaries of each chapter discussed in this episode.
[00:00:00] Introduction
[00:01:13] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand
Middle East Update: Helicopter crash in Iran killing the president and foreign minister, potential impact on elections.
Gaza Conflict: Israel's military actions in Gaza and potential impacts on oil risk premiums.
Ukraine War: Russian advances in Northeast Ukraine and its implications for oil prices.
Risk Premium: Discussion on the risk premium in oil prices and factors that could influence it.
[00:04:00] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply
Natural Gas Trends: Improvement in natural gas prices and future projections.
LNG Demand: Stability in LNG demand and its impact on supply and demand balance.
Futures Market: Explanation of contango and backwardation in the oil market.
[00:07:43] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses
Deficit Update: Challenges in calculating the deficit due to loan forgiveness.
Spending Trends: Analysis of US government spending from 2019 to 2023, including COVID-19 impacts.
Future Projections: Potential spending cuts and their implications for future budgets.
[00:09:43] Nvidia Earnings Day & Cashflow Risks
Nvidia's Growth: Discussion on Nvidia's market position and future growth prospects.
Tech Spending: Analysis of tech companies' CapEx budgets and their impact on Nvidia.
AI Data Centers: Sovereign data centers and their influence on Nvidia's business.
[00:11:53] Can the West Prevent China from Running TSMC?
Taiwan Semiconductor: Potential scenarios if China takes control of TSMC.
ASML's Role: Discussion on the feasibility of disabling TSMC's equipment remotely.
[00:13:02] Are AMD and Intel Left Behind?
Market Risks: Challenges faced by AMD and Intel in the evolving tech landscape.
Microsoft's Shift: Impact of Microsoft's move to ARM processors on AMD and Intel.
[00:17:05] Meta Q1 Earnings Reaction & Outlook
[00:19:24] Oracle Cerner and Oracle Cloud Platform
Oracle's Strategy: Evaluation of Oracle's acquisition of Cerner and its position in the cloud market.
Cloud Competition: Comparison with other cloud providers like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud.
[00:26:46] Healthcare Updates: Google Alphafold 3, VRTX & Drug Development
AlphaFold 3: Overview of Google's AlphaFold 3 and its implications for drug development.
Future of Medicine: Potential for AI to accelerate preclinical research and reduce costs.
[00:29:13] Conclusion
**Disclaimer:** The views expressed on this podcast are the hosts' alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase any security. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
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TSM 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ INTC 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ ORCL 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑
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