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The Cashflow Memo
SHOWNOTES
[00:00:00]
Introduction (Pages 1–13)
Mike, Jason, and Hunt open the show by outlining their plan to assess which companies covered in the memo are poised for the highest percentage increase in free cashflow by 2025. They highlight that overall cashflow growth—not just revenue—drives long-term valuations, and they set up the structure for this year’s “Cashflow Pick’em” challenge.
[00:00:48]
Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand
Hunt reviews the current oil market landscape, pointing out that cold weather in the Northeast is boosting heating oil and natural gas businesses. He emphasizes strong global demand estimates but notes supply-side uncertainty, especially regarding Iranian sanctions and potential U.S. foreign-policy shifts. The segment ends with advice to hold existing oil positions but remain cautious about starting new ones.
[00:02:59]
Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply
Hunt discusses the challenges in natural gas demand forecasts, especially with liquefied natural gas (LNG) project delays and power-generation trends. He notes that power demand for gas has grown steadily, even outpacing LNG growth in the short term. While the long-term LNG story remains attractive, near-term pricing could be volatile.
[00:04:44]
Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses
Hunt walks through the latest update on U.S. government finances, highlighting potential budget negotiations tied to the debt ceiling. He predicts at least 500 billion in spending cuts emerging from reconciliation legislation, possibly touching defense and healthcare programs. The hosts discuss how this may create market volatility, suggesting investors keep some cash on the sidelines.
[00:07:50]
Cashflow Pick’em 2025 (Pages 1–13)
Mike, Jason, and Hunt begin their page-by-page look at which companies could see the highest percentage growth in free cashflow. They compare their picks with AI models’ predictions from Grok and Perplexity. This segment covers tech (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, TSLA), software (CRM, NOW, SNOW, ORCL, AVGO), semiconductors (NVDA, AMD, INTC, TSM, ASML), entertainment (NFLX, DIS, META, SPOT), communications (CHTR, CMCSA, T, VZ, TMUS), payments (MA, V, PYPL), retail (WMT, TGT, LOW, HD, KMX), oil majors (XOM, CVX, COP, OXY, LNG), midstream (KMI, EPD, ET, WES, OKE), E&P (EOG, MGY, PR, FANG), natural gas (AR, EQT, CHK, AM), and banks (JPM, MS, GS, IBKR). They wrap with plans to continue the remaining pages in the next episode.
[00:23:50]
Special Break – Oakcliff Sailing
A short break features Dawn Riley discussing Oakcliff Sailing’s upcoming tour. She explains how the organization aims to collaborate with sailing communities across the nation, sharing best practices for training, funding, and event hosting.
[00:29:07]
Healthcare Updates
Jason updates listeners on Vertex’s recent clinical trial results, clarifying that setbacks in nerve pain do not necessarily affect its acute pain applications. They also touch on Lantheus, Harrow, and the ongoing debate over GLP-1 supply, compounding pharmacies, and patents. Finally, they consider whether new policy under RFK Jr. might promote broader transparency in healthcare data.
[00:33:30]
Can $200B be Trimmed from Medicare? (Exhibit A & Healthcare)
Mike and Jason debate the feasibility of cutting significant costs from Medicare and Medicaid without reducing vital healthcare supply. They note that administrative overhead and inefficiencies might be the first area to tackle. The conversation tees up more detailed policy discussions for the next episode.
[00:36:01]
Conclusion
Hunt signs off by reminding listeners that cold weather can be a silver lining for those invested in fossil fuel companies. Mike underscores the importance of doing your own research, and the hosts promise deeper dives in upcoming episodes. Don’t forget to subscribe, download the memo, and join them next week for more pages and more picks!
AAPL 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ CRM 0.00%↑ NOW 0.00%↑ SNOW 0.00%↑ ORCL 0.00%↑ AVGO 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ INTC 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ ASML 0.00%↑ NFLX 0.00%↑ DIS 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ SPOT 0.00%↑ CHTR 0.00%↑ CMCSA 0.00%↑ T 0.00%↑ VZ 0.00%↑ TMUS 0.00%↑ MA 0.00%↑ V 0.00%↑ PYPL 0.00%↑ WMT 0.00%↑ TGT 0.00%↑ LOW 0.00%↑ HD 0.00%↑ KMX 0.00%↑ XOM 0.00%↑ CVX 0.00%↑ COP 0.00%↑ OXY 0.00%↑ LNG 0.00%↑ KMI 0.00%↑ EPD 0.00%↑ ET 0.00%↑ WES 0.00%↑ OKE 0.00%↑ EOG 0.00%↑ MGY 0.00%↑ PR 0.00%↑ FANG 0.00%↑ AR 0.00%↑ EQT 0.00%↑ CHK 0.00%↑ AM 0.00%↑ JPM 0.00%↑ MS 0.00%↑ GS 0.00%↑ IBKR 0.00%↑ SGU 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ HROW 0.00%↑ LLY 0.00%↑ LNTH 0.00%↑
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