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The Cashflow Memo
SHOWNOTES
In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the implications of Donald Trump's 2024 election victory on energy, healthcare, technology, and the broader economy. They analyze key exhibits, dive into company-specific news, and explore the potential impacts of policy changes.
[00:00:59] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt expects a Trump administration deal with China to tighten the oil market surplus in 2025 by phasing out Iranian barrels. Despite predictions of peak oil demand, the IEA still forecasts an increase in 2025 versus 2024.
[00:03:06] Exhibit B: US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY Hunt anticipates better natural gas demand under Trump, with power demand outperforming LNG. He believes the administration will lift the hold on new LNG projects and combined cycle plants, leading to stronger demand growth. However, a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine could lead to Europe resuming Russian gas imports, potentially impacting US LNG prices.
[00:06:02] Exhibit A: US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES Hunt emphasizes the need to reduce the deficit in "all other" expenses and hopes Elon Musk will help save $200-300 billion. The goal is to get the deficit trend moving downward and lower the debt-to-GNP ratio through economic growth. The team also discusses Trump's proposed "golden visa" program as a potential revenue generator.
[00:09:35] Healthcare Updates (Pages 15-16) Jason discusses Celsius's acquisition of Alani Nu, a move to buy growth in the energy drink market. Lantheus reports strong earnings, with the market recognizing the value of their diagnostics business. The team also touches on Vertex's non-opioid painkillers and their commercialization efforts.
[00:12:04] Executive Order on Healthcare Price Transparency The team analyzes Trump's executive order mandating hospital price transparency, which aims to enforce the previously unenforced order from his first term. Jason explains the importance of price transparency in healthcare and the potential savings it could generate in the Medicare and Medicaid lines of the federal budget.
[00:19:25] Will AI be 'Winner take all?' Discussing Microsoft CEO's statement that large language models will not be winner-take-all, Jason and Mike argue that the underlying data, not the models themselves, will be the key differentiator. They also discuss the importance of inferencing infrastructure and the potential for NVIDIA to benefit from the AI arms race.
[00:25:26] Chip Export Controls (Page 3) The team discusses the potential impact of chip export controls on NVIDIA and the lack of significant competition from other players in the GPU market.
[00:28:22] Tesla sales drop 45% in Europe (Page 1) Mike notes Elon Musk's unpopularity in Europe due to his support of the far-right party in Germany, which has led to a significant drop in Tesla sales. However, Jason highlights Tesla's innovations in injection-molded panels, which could dramatically reduce production costs.
[00:29:33] Nvidia v. Tesla (Page 1) In the final segment, the team compares the investment potential of NVIDIA and Tesla at a hypothetical price of $150 per share. They discuss the advantages of each company and their potential for sustained growth and innovation.
The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics related to the 2024 election outcome, providing insights and analysis on the potential impacts across various industries. Stay tuned for more in-depth discussions on energy, healthcare, technology, and the economy in future episodes.
CELH 0.00%↑ LNTH 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑
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