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The Cashflow Memo
Shownotes
In this episode, the Telltales team dives into the latest developments in AI, analyzing the competitive landscape and opportunities for major tech companies. They also discuss Spotify's business model and moat, and examine the unsustainable U.S. deficit and its potential economic ramifications.
[00:34] WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C) Hunt provides an update on the oil market, noting that while the prospect of Israeli missiles directed at Iranian export facilities has supported prices, surplus capacity of around 4 million barrels is likely to keep prices in check. He also highlights the mature nature of oil demand in developed economies.
[03:19] US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Exhibit B) Hunt discusses the substantial revisions made to the natural gas page, with production remaining flat but Canadian imports increasing significantly. He expresses concern about the recent drop in gas prices and the surplus of gas in storage.
[06:18] US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Exhibit A) Hunt emphasizes the unsustainable nature of the U.S. deficit, with government borrowing nearly $2 trillion last year. He notes the recent rise in 10-year bond yields and the potential challenges in financing the deficit while the Fed reduces its balance sheet.
[08:34] JPM / MS / GS / IBKR (Page 13) The hosts review the nine-month results for major banks, focusing on their free cash flow and valuations. They compare the performance and business models of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.
[11:21] NFLX / DIS / META / SPOT (Page 4) The discussion turns to media and content companies, with a focus on Spotify's business model and potential expansion into video. Mike and Jason analyze Spotify's network effects, revenue drivers, and challenges in creator compensation.
[16:52] AI Agents Hunt introduces the topic of AI agents and their potential impact on various companies. Jason and Mike discuss the development of specialized and generalized AI agents, the importance of reducing errors, and the likely timelines for consumer-facing AI products.
[29:42] NFLX / DIS / META / SPOT (Page 4) The hosts return to discussing Meta's advancements in AI and its potential to increase free cash flow compared to Amazon and Google. They also touch upon Google's advantages in the Android ecosystem and the potential impact of AI agents on app store revenues.
JPM 0.00%↑ MS 0.00%↑ GS 0.00%↑ IBKR 0.00%↑ NFLX 0.00%↑ DIS 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ SPOT 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑
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