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The Cashflow Memo
Shownotes
In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the latest developments in the energy sector, Apple's lackluster iPhone 16 launch event, and exciting updates from biotech companies Vertex, BioNTech, and Harrow Health.
[00:01:05] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand
Hunt notes that oil is in decline, with China's demand forecast to be flat. Surplus capacity remains at 4M barrels, mostly controlled by the Saudis and Abu Dhabi. He advises waiting or buying half positions in upstream oil companies.
[00:01:50] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/Supply
Natural gas production continues to rise despite curtailments by major producers. LNG projects are delayed and futures prices remain low. The Permian basin is the largest growth area.
[00:03:03] Exhibit A: US Government Revenues and Expenses
The US deficit is projected to be around $1.6 trillion in 2024. Spending cuts will need to be addressed by the next administration.
[00:03:42] Energy Review (pages 9-12)
Hunt goes through the energy pages, focusing on midstream and diversified oil & gas companies. He highlights Antero Resources and its midstream subsidiary as an interesting comparison.
[00:09:41] Is 30x Free Cash Flow = Value? (page 1)
The hosts discuss whether 30 times free cash flow is a reasonable valuation for high-quality companies in the current interest rate environment. They note the importance of confidence in future growth at higher multiples.
[00:14:59] Apple iPhone 16 Launch - Underwhelming? (page 1) Jason and Mike debate the significance of Apple's underwhelming iPhone 16 launch. While new features were limited, Mike argues Apple is transitioning to a services-focused business model. Jason questions if Apple can compete as a software company against the likes of Google and Meta.
[00:23:58] Healthcare News Roundup (pages 15, 19, 20) Jason provides updates on Vertex, Harrow Health, and BioNTech from recent healthcare conferences. Vertex's CEO referred to their diabetes treatment as a potential cure. Harrow's subsidiary Melt Pharmaceuticals could have a $100M business at launch. BioNTech is set to announce data from its oncology programs.
The Telltales team covers a wide range of topics this week, providing valuable insights for investors interested in energy, technology, and healthcare. Tune in for the full discussion and analysis.
AR 0.00%↑ EQT 0.00%↑ CHK 0.00%↑ AM 0.00%↑ KMI 0.00%↑ EPD 0.00%↑ ET 0.00%↑ WES 0.00%↑ EOG 0.00%↑ MGY 0.00%↑ PR 0.00%↑ FANG 0.00%↑ XOM 0.00%↑ CVX 0.00%↑ COP 0.00%↑ OXY 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ BNTX 0.00%↑ HROW 0.00%↑
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Apple's Underwhelming Reveal: A Sign of Shifting Tides? (e2437)