The Cashflow Memo
SHOWNOTES
In this episode Mike, Jason, and Hunt weave together energy markets, semiconductor geopolitics, and healthcare shake‑ups to surface the cash‑flow signals that matter most for investors navigating 2025.
[00:00] Intro
[00:00:38] Oil & Gas Snapshot – Exhibits C & B (pp. 1‑2)
Hunt dissects world crude supply, flagging likely production lifts from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Iran. Despite OPEC+ relaxation, Brent has held near $60‑$70, suggesting bearish expectations were largely priced in.
[00:03:13] US Fiscal Stress – Exhibit A (p. 3)
A proposed U.S. budget expands defense outlays instead of trimming them, leaving Medicare/Medicaid untouched. Jason notes DOJ plans for Rapid‑FI fraud‑prevention at CMS—software triaging payments before dollars leave the Treasury.
[00:05:31] Semiconductor Decoupling: China vs NVIDIA (p. 4)
The team explores how tariff walls could birth a “parallel CUDA” inside China. Jason argues NVIDIA’s global moat is its CUDA software layer; Huawei must replicate both silicon and ecosystem. Mike warns that isolation often breeds disruptive alternatives.
[00:10:16] STEM Surge & ASML Imitation (p. 4)
China graduates 1.2 million engineers annually and is racing to copy ASML‑grade lithography in‑house. Hunt frames it as strategic absorption of surplus engineering talent.
[00:11:48] Sponsor Break – Oakcliff Sailing (n/a)
A quick cinematic detour to Oakcliff’s foiling chase boats.
[00:12:48] Tesla vs BYD: Premium or Mass‑Market? (p. 1)
Mike maintains Tesla commands pricing power as long as its FSD remains materially ahead. BYD’s scale threatens margins, while Xiaomi’s FSD setback highlights liability clouds.
[00:15:13] Berkshire AGM & Currency Risk
With $348 B in Treasuries, Buffett flags dollar debasement as his top worry. Jason speculates Berkshire might deploy cash into healthcare‑system rescues or grid build‑outs under Greg Abel.
[00:17:46] Q1 Tech Earnings: $MSFT & $META Lead
Meta hikes CapEx despite cost‑cut talk; Microsoft beats street expectations, underlining durable AI spending.
[00:18:06] AI Monetization & Google’s Defensive Stance
Meta shifts transformer models into ad ranking. Apple hints at AI‑search alternatives, threatening Google’s 96 % share—Jason imagines personal‑shopper agents disrupting traditional search ads.
[00:20:18] Healthcare Round‑Up
IQVIA reports U.S. drug spend up 11.5 %, driven by GLP‑1s. Vinay Prasad’s FDA appointment spooks biotech; proposed NIH reproducibility mandate could reshape study economics.
[00:22:51] Vertex: Pipeline Check & Russian IP Leak (p. 15)
Despite market jitters, Vertex eyes 2026 FDA submission for a Type 1 diabetes cure; Russian generic CF therapy is a one‑off hit.
[00:25:09] Lantheus: Diagnostics Thrive Amid Setbacks (Page 15)
Cancellation of a prostate‑therapy program hurts the stock, yet Novartis’s competing therapy expands demand for Lantheus’s PSMA‑PET scans. Tau‑PET for Alzheimer’s heads to the FDA next quarter.
[00:27:00] Harrow & Dry‑Eye Market Potential (Page 20)
Ophthalmologists praise Harrow’s Vevye; earnings tomorrow will gauge uptake velocity.
[00:27:35] Oral GLP‑1 Pills – The Next Obesity Wave (Page 19)
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk advance daily tablets, enabling dose flexibility. Micro‑dosing experiments by athletes hint at broader niches.
[00:28:40] Outro & Disclaimers
The hosts wrap with a reminder: do your own work; positions may be held.
Thanks for sailing with us. Subscribe, drop a review, and grab the weekly Cash‑Flow Memo at Telltales.us—your compass for markets in motion.
NVDA 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ $BYDDF $BRK.B MSFT 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ GOOGL 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ LNTH 0.00%↑ HROW 0.00%↑ LLY 0.00%↑ NVO 0.00%↑
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