The Cashflow Memo
SHOWNOTES
In this fast-moving 30-minute round-table, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace and Hunt Lawrence assess how an accelerating economic split between the United States and China would ripple through energy, technology, healthcare, retail and more. Drawing on their weekly Cash-Flow Memo, they move page-by-page through a 20-page company list and three macro “Exhibits,” highlighting immediate supply-chain pain points and the longer-term strategic pivots each industry may need. (Nicoletti et al., 2025)
A broad decoupling between the United States and China dominates this week’s discussion. Mike, Hunt and Jason walk through oil, gas and budget exhibits before racing down a twenty-page memo to gauge which companies—and whole industries—win, lose, or merely swerve if trade barriers harden.
[00:00] Intro (n/a)
Mike opens with a blunt warning that current China-chip policy is “shooting ourselves in the foot,” then welcomes listeners, sets the 30-minute agenda (energy / tech / healthcare) and plays the standard disclaimer.
[00:00:45] China’s Oil Demand & OPEC Strategy (Exhibit C)
Hunt notes China’s oil consumption “flat-lines” as EV adoption and a softer economy bite, while Saudi Arabia deliberately withholds 4 Mb/d of spare capacity to nudge a U.S.–Iran deal and keep prices firm.
[00:02:20] U.S. Natural-Gas Snapshot (Exhibit B)
Oil hovers near $60 and gas slips toward $4, but the bigger story is record dry-gas output (≈106 Bcf/d). LNG exports rise from 13 Bcf/d to 16 Bcf/d, keeping demand solid even as supply pressure increases.
[00:03:15] Tariffs, Deficits & the Decoupling Thought-Experiment (Exhibit A)
Tariff revenue (~$300 B) is “something—but not much” versus a $1-2 T deficit. Hunt argues spending must fall to $5.5 T by FY-2026 or risk failed Treasury auctions. The hosts decide to sprint through 20 memo pages to test how a full U.S.–China decoupling would hit specific companies today and over time.
[00:07:24] Consumer & Logistics First-Look (pp. 20 – 17)
Five Below faces supply-shock pain; Uber, DoorDash and Airbnb see muted but real pressure as Chinese outbound travel cools. Albemarle could actually benefit if U.S. lithium refining scales, while FedEx, UPS and Nike brace for cross-border friction.
[00:12:16] Food, Hospitality & Beverage (p. 16)
Hilton suffers from falling international traffic; Starbucks and McDonald’s risk lost China earnings; Chipotle and Celsius feel minimal direct effects, though Chipotle’s avocado pipeline stays on watch.
[00:12:52] Pharma & Rare-Earth Bottlenecks (p. 15)
High margins give Pfizer, Moderna and peers tariff-absorbing room, yet Lantheus and Novartis depend on rare-earth isotopes, and Vertex still manufactures heavily in China—raising near-term supply-chain headaches.
[00:15:08] Heavy Equipment & Industrials (p. 14)
Caterpillar’s China plants become a liability, but Deere touts COVID-era playbooks that diversified its bolt-and-washer suppliers; Generac and TDG watch input costs but are structurally resilient.
[00:16:10] Banks & Upstream Energy (pp. 13 – 11)
JPMorgan, Goldman and Interactive Brokers often thrive on volatility; shale producers can throttle cap-ex if crude weakens; LNG policy quirks (cash penalties on Chinese-built tankers) add risk to exporters.
[00:17:20] Retail Supply-Chain Stress Test (pp. 10 – 8)
Empty shelves loom at Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s if Beijing throttles exports during the critical holiday-ordering window—port activity on the U.S. West Coast is already down sharply.
[00:18:50] Payments & Telecoms (pp. 7 – 6)
Visa, Mastercard and PayPal feel mild drag from lower travel spend, while Comcast, Charter, AT&T and Verizon are largely insulated.
[00:19:11] Media & Advertising Dependence (p. 4)
Netflix’s China footprint is tiny, but Meta’s U.S. ad buyers still rely on Chinese-made goods; a consumption slowdown could trim revenue despite Meta’s global scale.
[00:20:06] Semiconductors & Diverging Tech Stacks (p. 3)
Nvidia’s real China exposure remains opaque; decoupling may spur Huawei-led domestic GPU designs and alternative EUV lithography paths, while TSMC hedges with six advanced fabs plus a new R-and-D hub in Arizona.
[00:26:33] Enterprise Software & Data Centers (p. 2)
Broadcom’s hardware faces tariff risk; Oracle’s database business is sizable in China; Salesforce, ServiceNow and Snowflake are affected indirectly through data-center gear assembled in China.
[00:27:36] Oakcliff Sailing Interlude (n/a)
A quick update from the deck of the JB-66 en route to Oyster Bay showcases ongoing support for Oakcliff training programs.
[00:28:22] Big Tech & E-Commerce Reality Check (p. 1)
Apple’s high-end iPhones still rely on China’s skilled assembly lines, with India ramp-up years away. Amazon mirrors Walmart’s “empty-shelf, higher-cost” dilemma—your $10 USB-C cable may soon cost $15 if production reshoring proves pricey.
[00:31:00] Closing & Next-Week Preview
Hunt tees up a deeper dive on Alphabet, Microsoft and Tesla valuations, jokes that New York has out-weathered San Diego lately, and signs off until next Wednesday.
UBER 0.00%↑ DASH 0.00%↑ ABNB 0.00%↑ FIVE 0.00%↑ HROW 0.00%↑ UNH 0.00%↑ CVS 0.00%↑ REGN 0.00%↑ LLY 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ MRNA 0.00%↑ LNTH 0.00%↑ BNTX 0.00%↑ VRTX 0.00%↑ CAT 0.00%↑ DE 0.00%↑ GNRC 0.00%↑ TDG 0.00%↑ FAST 0.00%↑ JPM 0.00%↑ MS 0.00%↑ GS 0.00%↑ IBKR 0.00%↑ AR 0.00%↑ EQT 0.00%↑ CHK 0.00%↑ AM 0.00%↑ EOG 0.00%↑ MGY 0.00%↑ PR 0.00%↑ FANG 0.00%↑ KMI 0.00%↑ EPD 0.00%↑ ET 0.00%↑ WES 0.00%↑ XOM 0.00%↑ CVX 0.00%↑ COP 0.00%↑ OXY 0.00%↑ LNG 0.00%↑ WMT 0.00%↑ TGT 0.00%↑ LOW 0.00%↑ HD 0.00%↑ KMX 0.00%↑ MA 0.00%↑ V 0.00%↑ PYPL 0.00%↑ CHTR 0.00%↑ CMCSA 0.00%↑ T 0.00%↑ VZ 0.00%↑ TMUS 0.00%↑ NFLX 0.00%↑ DIS 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ SPOT 0.00%↑ NVDA 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ INTC 0.00%↑ TSM 0.00%↑ ASML 0.00%↑ CRM 0.00%↑ NOW 0.00%↑ SNOW 0.00%↑ ORCL 0.00%↑ AVGO 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ AMZN 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑
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