E2247 - Energy Majors (XOM, CVX, COP) - November 23, 2022
Twitter essential for artificial general intelligence? Big tech overstaffed? Iger back at the helm of Disney. Jassy reshaping Amazon.
If you are new, welcome! If you haven’t subscribed, join crew by subscribing here:
🎧 To listen to the podcast, click play button below or listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or SoundCloud.
This newsletter is designed to complement the podcast and ultimately enable you develop your ability to think critically and independently about investments. Neither the podcast nor this newsletter provide ‘stock tips’ or financial advice. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you. If you are new, please check out the What is Telltales? post.
If you know someone who could benefit from Telltales, please share it by clicking here:
This week we discussed the energy majors (rather briefly). The big takeaway is that all three (Exxon, Chevron, and Conoco Phillips) offer an exceptionally high free cash yields. As discussed, there are many justifiable reasons for this. You can check them out on page 8 in the document attached below. Again, my recommendation, take this doc, and recreate it for yourself with the 10-Qs.
The conversation then pivoted to Big Tech. We discuss their relative valuations and ponder the case for significantly reduced headcount at these companies as evidenced (not yet proven) by Twitter’s 75% headcount cut. We close with a discussion on Artificial General Intelligence and the case for the major cloud services to continue growing. Next week we will dig into some software companies. Until then, Happy Thanksgiving!
Supplemental Data
1 SuperCompounders
2 Macro
3 Energy
3.1 Oil & Gas
3.2 Metals Powered
4 Tech
Cloud Multiples - Check out the most recent edition of Clouded Judgement for the latest SaaS multiples.
Semiconductors
Semiconductor Industry Association Global Billings Report
Bureau of Economic Analysis Semiconductor Import / Export
Cryptocurrency
XOM 0.00%↑ CVX 0.00%↑ COP 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ GOOG 0.00%↑
How did you like this week’s Telltales? Your feedback helps me make this great.
Loved | Great | Good | Meh | Bad | ….. If you liked this post from Telltales, why not share it?
This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.