E2211
Oil back down to pre-Ukraine war levels, what's next? Plus updates on cloud software, semiconductors, and a few notes on EVs and batteries.
If you are new to Telltales, welcome! It’s great to have you here. This newsletter is designed to complement our weekly call/podcast and ultimately enable you develop your ability to think critically and independently about investments.
Neither the podcast nor this newsletter provide ‘stock tips’ or financial advice. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you. If you are new, please check out the What is Telltales? post.
Every week I will provide additional data to supplement our weekly Telltales podcast. You can get the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or SoundCloud. Follow along with this newsletter to stay up to date!
For those of you that listen to the call live, my apologies for the microphone issues we’ve experienced on the last couple cars. I think I’ve narrowed the problem down to a piece of recording software I am using. I’ve engaged their support team to help solve the problem and I hope that it will be resolved going forward.
SuperCompounders
Macro
Energy
Tech
EVs & Batteries
Nickel and Lithium prices are through the roof. The industry forecasts a 300% growth in battery production over the next 5 years. If you surveyed sales forecasts from EV companies, you'd likely find that number to be far greater.
Ford will not be able to fulfill all of its pre orders for the 2022 electric F150 pickup. I pre-ordered on the 2nd day it was available and got this message.
Rivian is also facing production challenges. During the company’s earnings call last week, they significantly altered their production target for 2022 from 40,000 units to 25,000.
The Felicity Ace, the EV-carrying cargo ship which caught fire in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean last month, has sunk. While the source of the fire hasn’t been confirmed, it’s been speculated that the fire was caused by the many EVs on board, or at the very least made the fire more difficult to put out.
Cloud Multiples - Cloud multiples have come back down to earth. For a weekly analsysis, check out Clouded Judgement.
Semiconductors
Semiconductor Industry Association Global Billings Report
Bureau of Economic Analysis Semiconductor Import / Export
Cryptocurrency
Fir Tree Capital Management is making a substantial short wager on Tether. Read more from Bloomberg…
How did you like this week’s Telltales? Your feedback helps me make this great.
Loved | Great | Good | Meh | Bad | ….. If you liked this post from Telltales, why not share it?
This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.